In 2024, China's liquor production continues to decline. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2024, the output of liquor (65 degrees) of enterprises above designated size in the country was 474 million liters, down 7.6% year on year; From January to December 2024, the cumulative production of liquor by enterprises above designated size was 4.145 million liters, down 1.86% year-on-year, which is the eighth consecutive year of decline in liquor production since 2016.

Looking back at the changes in China's liquor production over the past 20 years, since 2004, China's liquor production has continued to experience the blessing of the "golden decade" from 3.117 million liters, rising for 12 consecutive years, reaching the peak of 13.574 million liters, starting from the peak in 2016, and continuing to decline to 4.145 million liters in 2024. The cumulative decline of 9.429 million liters, while the cumulative production of liquor in the 20 years from 2004 to 2024 is 168.972 million liters, the average annual production is 844.86 million liters, and the cumulative production in 2024 is less than half of it.

The rate of decline in industry output can be described as tragic. If the decline continues for another two years, production is expected to return to about 3.5 million liters.

Under the new social development cycle, in the face of the current shrinkage development cycle of the liquor industry, as consumers drink less frequently and consumption scenarios become less, will the liquor industry continue to develop in this way, like rice wine and wine, people will drink less and less liquor in the future, and the market will be gradually replaced by other alcoholic drinks or replaced by other drinks, becoming a niche product?

From the perspective of the production and sales scale of liquor industry from 2004 to 2024, the sales scale has increased by 13.23 times in 20 years, and the tonnage price has increased by 10 times.

According to the data, in the past 20 years, the development of the baijiu industry mainly benefited from the development of the macroeconomic environment, which promoted the increase of the tonnage price of baijiu. At the same time, due to the unique characteristics of baijiu products, it has the ability to fight or resist inflation. Therefore, its unique time asset value allows the baijiu industry to continue to pass through different economic and industry cycles. The ups and downs of production will not affect the prosperity and development of liquor.

In addition, the three wine industry dimensions of liquor, rice wine, wine comparative analysis, although the liquor industry in 2025 to open the market performance is generally, but the strong industrial ecology, will soon let the liquor out of the dilemma, continue to lead the market healthy and orderly development.

From the comparative analysis of the ecological industry of the three major wine categories, although yellow wine, as the mainstream wine in China, once had a glorious history on the stage, and wine in 2023 in the global market scale has reached 2,585.206 billion yuan, becoming the mainstream wine, but the ecological system of white wine is more powerful than the current yellow wine and wine, and the cultural heritage is deeper. The market is more popular, so in the short term, although the liquor industry will face the pressure of competition, but in the long run, it will continue to develop healthily and orderly.

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As a treasure of Chinese traditional culture, liquor has a profound historical background and extensive market foundation. Liquor is brewed with sorghum and other grains as raw materials. Through unique brewing technology and long aging, it has formed unique drinking properties and collection properties of preserving and increasing the value of products. In China, baijiu is not only an important drink, but also a social, cultural and emotional carrier.

Therefore, despite facing challenges such as market competition and changing consumer tastes, the core position of baijiu in China's alcohol market is still difficult to shake.

From the perspective of market trend, although the growth rate of China's liquor industry has slowed down, the leading enterprises are still able to maintain a high growth rate, which is thanks to the liquor enterprises continue to promote product innovation, market expansion and brand upgrading. At the same time, with the continuous improvement of consumers' pursuit of healthy drinking and quality life, liquor enterprises are also actively adjusting the product structure and launching more products that meet consumer needs.